Jul 19, 2023 Market Outlook

Interesting return opportunities with short-dated bonds

Market outlook | Fixed Income

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“We are currently rather optimistic with a view to European sovereign bonds with short to medium maturity,” Oliver Eichmann, head of Investment Strategy Bonds, says. In Europe, we expect two further rate hiking steps by the ECB. This should mark the end of this hiking cycle for the time being. Combined with slowing growth and waning inflation, this should, in his view, be a good time to consider fixed-income assets. Eichmann adds: “In such a context, yields on short bonds tend to fall so that chances of price gains have the potential to rise correspondingly.” This will be particularly the case if the market is dominated by the view that a rate hiking cycle of the central bank is drawing to a close pretty soon. Due to higher yield levels, bonds from Italy and Spain continue to be interesting. “We do not, however, expect any further narrowing of spreads versus Bunds,” Eichmann states. Higher rate levels and falling asset purchases tend to be a burden on countries.

Oliver Eichmann

Food and services pushing up prices Components of inflation rates in the European Union In percent chart 2 en-gb Source: DWS Investment GmbH, as of July 2023

U.S. government bonds (10 years)

Only slightly higher yields expected

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  • We should have covered the major path of the yield rise of 10-year U.S. Treasuries
  • By June 2024, total returns are expected to be slightly positive.

German government bonds (10 years)

Further rising yields should depress total returns

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  • Total returns on 10-year Bunds will be negative in the current year due to rising yields.
  • By the end of June 2024, we expect only slightly positive total returns, since yields are expected to continue to rise.

Emerging market sovereign bonds

Modest total returns expected

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  • Total returns of sovereign bonds should be rather modest in the next couple of months, spreads should hardly narrow.
  • Emerging market corporate bonds appear to be substantially more promising

Credit

Investment Grade

U.S.
Eurozone
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High Yield

U.S.
Eurozone
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Legend

The strategic view by July 2024

The indicators signal whether DWS expects the asset class in question to develop upwards, sideways or downwards. They indicate both the short-term and the long-term expected earnings potential for investors.

Source: DWS Investment GmbH; CIO Office, as of 10 July 2023

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  • Positive return potential
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  • Potential profits but also risk of loss rather limited

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  • Negative return potential

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