DWS Osteuropa

ISIN: LU0062756647Koers per datum: 24-1-2020Uitgiftekoers: 741,80
 Valuta: EURVerkoopkoers: 706,47

Sylwia Szczepek

Fondsbeheerder sinds: 1-6-2015
Beheer locatie: Duitsland

Huidige opmerking

With the strong dividend backup and corporate restructuring ongoing, Gazprom keeps the focus on itself, also doing very well in December, though behind Sberbank and mail.ru which finalized their partnership for certain online activities. In Poland, the proposed building of a state owned super company, with PKN and Lotos being parts of this venture, was not very much liked by the market, with both stocks trading down markedly. On the other hand, polish copper miner KGHM did well on the back of rising copper prices. On the back of the political questions with the US, Turkish stocks exposed to gold performed very well, followed by those exposed to domestic demand which keeps recovering from the troughs reached in late 2018/early 2019.

Vorige opmerkingen

  • 11/2019: In Russia CPI growth slowed from +4.0% YoY in September to +3.8% YoY in October. GDP growth increased to +1.7% YoY in 3Q19, from +0.9%YoY in 2Q19. On the equity market MSCI Russia declined 0.7%, though performance of individual stocks showed significant diversions. On the positive side Yandex shares increased 26% driven mainly by planned changes in the corporate structure. MTS outperformed the index as the sale of Ukrainian unit and special dividend have been announced. On the other hand material stocks with the exception of steel stocks were under pressure given gold price weakness last month. MSCI Turkey increased 6.8% in USD terms in November on the back of good inflation data and slowly improving growth outlook. Hungary (+1.3%) outperformed Czech (-1.0%) and Poland (-4.4%) in November. Polish banks shares fared quite poorly, as FX mortgage risks are still lingering around and are difficult to quantify.

  • 10/2019: The Russian market in total traded sideways in October, though sectoral performance showed significant diversions. Large cap banks as well as market behemoth Gazprom showed signs of activity again, mainly driven by attractive valuations and their promisingly high interest rates. Oil companies like Lukoil and Tatneft also performed well, with their supportive dividend payout plans attracting more investors. The domestic retail market keeps being under pressure though: retailers X5 and Magnit keep witnessing competitive pressures, while the consumers themselves see no improvement in their disposable income. In Turkey during the month, the main macroeconomic indicators continued to behave relatively well as annual inflation fell to 8.6% as of October and current account produced a surplus of US$2.6bn as of August 2019, bringing the 12-month rolling surplus to US$5.1bn. On October 24th the Central Bank surprised the markets by cutting the policy rate higher than expected by 250bps to 14.00% and said that year end inflation is expected to be “considerably” below their July forecast.

  • 09/2019: The Central Bank of Russia cut its key rate -25bp to 7%. Judging from Ministry of Finance’ comments, the accumulation of National Wealth Fund liquidity is set to continue after the 7% GDP threshold. Elsewhere, ESG (Environment, Social and Governance) is gaining momentum in Russia, as Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev ratified the Paris Agreement in Russia. On the macro data front, Consumer Price Index (CPI) (in YoY terms) declined from +4.6% in July to +4.3% in August. Industrial production rose +2.9% YoY exceeding expectations, with all sectors showing an uptick. With the support from the sharp upwards move of the oil price in the midst of the month, Russia generally did well, but lost the same amount of performance after the oil price eased again. Turkey’s rate cut decisions were saved by the peer central banks’ rate cuts decisions and the markets rallied along with it. Turkish Central Bank cut its policy rate by 325 bps to 16.50% on September 12th on top of the 425 cut in June, bringing total cuts since 750bps.

  • 08/2019: MSCI Russia declined 4.7% in USD terms as the RUB weakened to 66.78 and brent crude dropped to USD 59.2/bbl. On the domestic macro front Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth slowed to +4.6% YoY in July, from +4.7% YoY in June, which is within the CBR`s forecast range. At the beginning of August the US Treasury issued a directive with new sanctions on Russia over Skripal case. New US sanctions target Russian sovereign debt for the first time, however in the form of preventing US entities from participating in the primary market of non-RUB sovereign bonds. RUB bonds and stated-owned firms (SOE) debt are not affected. The best performing stocks were gold stocks Polyus and Polymetal. The worst performing were VTB and Alrosa. MSCI Turkey dropped -10.7% in USD terms in August as the TRY weakened 4.3% to 5.83. Hungary (-4.9%) and Czech (-5.3%) outperformed Polish equity market (-8.7%) in August, where the CHF mortgage issue put again the pressure on the banking sector.

  • 07/2019: Russia performed well in July, not least due to the expectations of rate cuts globally as well as in Russia, which happened towards the end of the month. In the absence of any sanctions-related news, Russian IT companies listed in the United States performed well. Gold performed well, too, in the anticipation of lower interest rates, triggering an upward move of Russian gold names such as Polyus and Polymetal. In Turkey, the Central Bank cut its policy rate by 425bps to 19.75%. Although the rate cut action was more aggressive than expected, the markets took it relatively well thanks to the global easing expectations. On the macro front, inflation performance is going well, and led to the downward revision in the government’s year-end CPI expectation to 13.9% from 14.6%. The strength of the Turkish Lira helped companies indebted in hard currencies. Polish banks keep performing quite poorly as the discussion about conversion of Swiss Franc mortgages into Polish Zloty is still raising concerns.