DWS Osteuropa

ISIN: LU0062756647Koers per datum: 8-7-2020Uitgiftekoers: 567,63
 Valuta: EURVerkoopkoers: 540,59

Sylwia Szczepek

Fondsbeheerder sinds: 1-6-2015
Beheer locatie: Duitsland

Huidige opmerking

Russia’s strong recovery in May comes on the back of troughing oil prices, and accordingly giving the entire market a lift. Consumer lender TCS was one of the strongest performers after having fallen significantly, followed with some distance by oil companies and miners such as Norilsk Nickel. After strongly outperforming before, and despite the strong gold price, gold companies moved sideways, clearly reflecting the preference of investors for stocks which had lost significant value before. After April’s strong come back, Turkish equities continued to march higher in May. BIST100 rose by 4.4% in TL terms mainly led by domestic investors’ interest, given the decline in interest rates and lack of alternative investments with decent return. The investors’ focus continued to be on quality industrial names and also small caps that typically move quickly with the news headlines and local retail investors interest. Banks continued to underperform the benchmark.

Vorige opmerkingen

  • 04/2020: In Russia, April has been a very curious month for the ruble and since hitting its low at 83 to the US Dollar on Mar 18, it has gained 12% on a combo of a better risk mood globally, a decent Foreigne Exchange Market (FX) offer from the Central Bank and subdued demand for it from importers and population. On a stock specific basis, defensive companies did well, namely gold producers, food retailers and telecommunications companies. Banks showed a more mixed picture, whereas diamond miner Alrosa being among the few losing stocks given that the sales outlook in 2020 remains bleak. Turkish equities made a good come back in April as global equities rebounded with continuous newsflow on stimulus packages to save economies due to COVID19 pandemic. Turkish Lira depreciated by 5% to the USD during the month whilst Central Bank continued to sell US$ through state banks in relatively large sizes. Depreciation could have been higher if it wasn’t for the sharp decline in oil prices globally, which is expected to help significantly with Turkey’s current account deficit problems in 2020. Overall, food retailers, IT stocks and overly punished small cap stocks performed particularly well in April.

  • 03/2020: The sudden drop of the oil price after the disagreement about future production volumes of Russia and Saudi Arabia took its toll on the Russian Ruble and the equity market in March, adding to an already tense situation on the back of the spread of Covid19. Accordingly, mainly risk-averse stocks performed well, namely gold miners and those which have fixed revenue agreements or less volatile revenue streams like energy producers. Oil producers and banks were hit hard though – even the imminent impact on their full year results has to be seen, investors clearly preferred to reduce exposure to any companies geared to oil and in turn to domestic GDP growth. Turkish equities plunged in March in parallel with the global markets due to the rising COVID19 cases and number of deaths. The collapse in oil price, whilst beneficiary for Turkey as a net and large importer, was mostly overridden by increasing worries over the slowdown in economy after measures were implemented to control the virus and factories halted production and non-food stores and restaurants closed after government’s call for a voluntary quarantine across the country.

  • 02/2020: With the financial markets globally worrying about the spread of the Corona virus, Russia was not unaffected, despite very few cases known in Russia itself. Still, the risk of a global slowdown of economic activity clearly affects the commodity markets negatively, with energy related as well as base commodity related companies performing poorly. Against this, gold clearly outperformed, reflecting its save haven status. In Turkey the month actually started well and the BIST index touched its all time (in TRY) high of 124,536, avoiding coronavirus newsflow but instead enjoying the benefits of the lower commodity prices. On the last day of the month, Turkey opened the day 10% lower after on worries that Russia and Turkey may see an increase in tensions over the situation in Syria, where the situation remains unclear about the medium term development. Overall, gold companies outperformed the weak index. Hungary outperformed relatively Czech and Poland in February, however all markets closed last month deep in negative territory. The Czech National Bank surprised markets with a 25 bp hike in it key policy rate, the repo rate to 2.25% at its 6 Feb meeting.

  • 01/2020: In January MSCI Russia index declined by 1.7% in EUR terms. On the political front the government submitted its resignation and Putin nominated Mikhail Mishustin, as the new Prime Minister, who then formed a new Government. Brent crude fell US$-10.09 to US$56.33/bbl and unsurprisingly energy sector was the worst performer last month. Consumer and utilities sectors were among the leaders. MSCI Turkey increased by 2.9% in EUR. In January Central Bank cut its key policy rate by 75bp to 11.25%, while Turkey’annual inflation increased due to domestic demand recovery & a weaker base. Financial and consumer sector performed very well driven by macro and earnings recovery. On the other hand airline stocks and energy were underperforming. Czech market (-2.6%) outperformed Poland (-4.5%) and Hungary (-9.4%) in January.

  • 12/2019: With the strong dividend backup and corporate restructuring ongoing, Gazprom keeps the focus on itself, also doing very well in December, though behind Sberbank and mail.ru which finalized their partnership for certain online activities. In Poland, the proposed building of a state owned super company, with PKN and Lotos being parts of this venture, was not very much liked by the market, with both stocks trading down markedly. On the other hand, polish copper miner KGHM did well on the back of rising copper prices. On the back of the political questions with the US, Turkish stocks exposed to gold performed very well, followed by those exposed to domestic demand which keeps recovering from the troughs reached in late 2018/early 2019.