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- Market outlook -December 2024
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Euphoria on markets increases risk of setbacks
#1 Market & Macro
- “Our base scenario for 2025 is that we expect it to become another good year for investors,” Vincenzo Vedda, DWS Chief Investment Officer, states. Waning inflation, normalizing growth and expected further rate cuts are establishing a positive background.
- The investment strategist expects the economic outlook and robust profit growth to prevent equities from turning negative in the long run – this is, at least, his base scenarios. However, the already familiar risk factors are still around: US valuations are historically high, and markets are still driven by a handful of US tech companies with extremely high market capitalizations. Such a concentration is not without risks.
- Moreover, global trade could be hampered by measures taken by president-elect Donald Trump – keyword: tariffs, with potentially negative implications for markets. With a view to equity investment regions, Vedda does not have explicit preferences. He relies on a broadly diversified global equity portfolio. With a view to sectors, he regards the software segment within the tech sector to be particularly promising, followed by Asian semi-conductor manufacturers. Among defensive sectors, health appears to be most attractive although the future US government might trigger some volatility here.
- Vedda is rather cautious regarding the long-term outlook for equity markets: “We expect the MSCI All Countries World to return around five percent annually in the ten years to come. In the past two decades, realized returns were almost twice as high – amounting to approximately ten percent per year. However, until January 20th, 2025, the day of Trump’s inauguration as US president, the US equity market could continue to ride on the wave of euphoria, unleashed by Trump’s victory. Afterwards, this adage might come true: “Buy the rumor, sell the fact.”
Topics expected to drive capital markets in 2025
Central banks: European Central Bank expected to make more rate cutting steps than the Fed
- “The Federal Reserve should continue on its rate-cutting path, however not at the pace recently expected by the markets. Over a 12-month horizon, we forecast three rate cuts,” Johannes Müller, Chief Economist, states.
- He expects the ECB to cut rates in four steps of 25 basis points each by December 2025 so that rates would return to the level of 2.0 percent (from currently 3.25 percent).
Inflation: two-percent target could be reached in the Eurozone by the end of 2025
- “The last mile on the path towards a target inflation rate of two percent will be the most difficult one,” Müller adds. For the United States, he forecasts further falling price rises and an inflation rate of 2.4 percent (after 2.9 percent in 2024).
- Inflation rates are also expected to fall in the Eurozone and might already reach their two-percent target in December 2025. For 2024, the inflation rate should still amount to 2.3 percent according to Müller.
Economy: growth outlook for the USA substantially better than for the Eurozone
- The US economy has proven to be more resilient than expected. Müller sees the main reasons in the expansive fiscal policy, the spending of high savings accumulated during the pandemic and the robust labor market. Growth should amount to 2.7 percent in 2024 and slightly weaken to 2.0 percent in 2025.
- For the Eurozone, Müller expects a normalization of the economic cycle, particularly since the production cycle should have slumped already. Growth might, however, be rather meagre in 2025: 0.9% (2024: 0.7%).
Political tailwind for US stocks
#2 Equites
- There are very different opinions on how president-elect Donald Trump will govern and what the implications of his political decisions will be. Up to now, financial markets have shown nothing but clearly positive reactions. Since Trump’s victory, Bitcoin, the oldest crypto currency, has surged by roughly a third, and the small-cap US stock market index Russel 2000 has risen by nine percent within four weeks.
- This does not come as a surprise to David Bianco, DWS Chief Investment Officer USA. After all, planned measures such as deregulation and tax cuts should have a positive effect on corporate profits. “Profit gains of the S&P 500 corporations should amount to ten to fifteen percent,” he expects. “All in all, the net impacts of tariffs and tax cuts should be finally balanced,” Bianco states. Valuations of US stocks should thus remain very high – however, earnings dynamics and a lasting expansion of the economy seem to justify an expected price/earnings ratio of 21.5.
- Alongside improved earnings prospects, Bianco also sees higher risks of downside surprises. 2025 could also be a turning point to the better for European corporations. “The lasting global downward trend of industry could come to a halt in 2025,” Marcus Poppe, DWS Co-Head European Equities states. This might benefit European corporations, particularly small- to mid-caps.
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Should sentiment change, private consumption could become an additional major driving force, as soon as the currently very high savings rate of 15 percent in Europe comes down. However, in the short run, European stocks should not be expected to outperform their US counterparts, despite record-high discounts of 45 percent. The US growth outlook is simply too good for such a scenario. Poppe identifies mainly three risks for the markets: a substantial rise of US interest rates to a level of five percent, an escalation of the trade war and of geopolitical risks.
Stock returns: future two-digit gains hardly within reach
Source: DWS Investment GmbH. as of end of November 2024
Asian equities: waiting for an impetus from domestic consumers
- “Generally, our outlook for APAC equities is neutral,” Ivy Ng, DWS Chief Investment Officer APAC, states. The performance of stock markets in China, India and Japan in the year to come should primarily depend on consumer sentiment in the countries concerned.
- “In China, we still wait to see the implications of fiscal state measures on corporate results,” Ng continues. US tariffs could have fewer effects than many expect, since the share of exports to the United States has fallen from 20 percent in 2017 to 13 percent in 2023. The performance of the Indian stock market, in its turn, will primarily depend on higher investments by corporations and the justification of high valuations by an increase in profitability.
- “The Japanese stock market could benefit from a cyclical recovery of the world economy which should translate into improved corporate profits,” Ng adds. It is supported by a strong rise in stock buybacks and rising real wages, which are boosting consumption.
China has reduced its dependence from the USA
How China’s exports have developed since 2017
Source: DWS Investment GmbH; as of end of November 2024
Good return outlook for fixed-income assets
#3 Fixed Income
- “2025 should become a good year for bonds. We expect positive returns for all essential asset classes. This holds true for both, sovereign bonds and corporate bonds,” Thomas Höfer, DWS Head of Investment Grade Credit EMEA, says. Höfer favors investment-grade euro corporate bonds; total returns of 4.7 percent are well within reach here.
- High-yield bonds have a higher probability of widening yield spreads, resulting in price losses. Higher yields would, however, compensate for these risks. The yield outlook of sovereign bonds is almost as good as for corporate bonds. Poor growth and inflation rates approaching the two-percent target of central banks nourish expectations of further rate cuts in 2025.
- Over a 12-month horizon, 10-year Treasuries could yield total returns of 4.6 percent. Return expectations for 10-year Bunds are only slightly lower at 4.3 percent. A sharp increase of public debt could entail risks, according to Höfer, since excess supply of bonds could result in rising yields and thus in falling prices.
- Höfer’s conclusion: “Fixed income assets offer attractive returns and a positive yield outlook and should be an interesting alternative to stocks particularly from the viewpoint of risk and reward. "The high appetite for this asset class should lead to further capital inflows and support valuations.
- Asian bonds should offer even slightly higher return opportunities, however accompanied by higher risks. Ivy Ng, DWS Chief Investment Officer APAC, sees particular opportunities in broadly diversified assets, by reducing the traditionally high weight of Chinese bonds and increasing investment in bonds from countries such as Japan, India and Indonesia.
Return opportunities of sovereign and corporate bonds
Expected total returns in the USA and Europe by December 2025
Source: DWS Investment GmbH; as of end of November 2024
Euroepan real estate markets at a turning point
#4 Real Estate / Infrastructure
- "After markets have sailed into stormy waters in the wake of rising interest rates, the situation on the real estate market has improved substantially,” Ulrich von Creytz, DWS Chief Investment Officer Real Estate Europe, states. “After two hard years on the European real estate market, we are now facing a turnaround,” von Creytz continues.
- Recently, we have observed a recovery of core real estate, i.e high-quality property in excellent locations. This is particularly true for the segments of residential properties, logistics and high-quality office spaces. The market is, however, divided: demand of high-quality property has already started to increase again since the second quarter of 2024. In the case of lower-quality property we are still waiting for the turnaround.
- With a view to property loans, von Creytz forecasts a growing financing gap since banks have started to trim their loan portfolios due to higher loan loss provisions and more stringent regulations. This creates more opportunities and attractive return expectations for alternative lenders.
- Another attractive sector are infrastructure investments in Europe, since capital to the tune of 14 trillion euro should be needed by the year of 2040.
- This offers particularly attractive investment opportunities for private infrastructure capital investments, since governments will not be able to raise his huge amount of capital on their own. Compared with the United States and Australasia, Europe appears to be interesting also from the viewpoint of valuations.
Infrastructure investments: valuation advantage for Europe
Ratio of Enterprise Value (EV) to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization
Source: DWS Investment GmbH; as of end of November 2024
#5 Forecast 2025
DWS view on individual asset classes
Equities
Equities USA
Trump politics could continue to boost US stocks short-term
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Equities Germany
Some upside potential left for the Dax
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Equities Europe
Moderate upward potential
—An expected profit growth in the mid one-digit range and good dividend yields establish a good basis for a moderate positive development. —Stoxx 600 target: 525 points (12/2025). |
Equities Japan
Japan: sound starting position for 2025
—The weak yen, rising real incomes and corporate governance reforms should support the market. —We would use short-term soft spots to build up positions. —MSCI Japan target: 1,770 points (12/2025). |
Fixed Income
US government bonds (10 years)
Yield spread to short maturities should widen
—The yield curve should steepen, i.e. the spread between long and short maturities should widen and volatility rise. —Yield forecast: 4.50% (12/ 2025). |
German government bonds (10 years)
Poor growth should keep returns low
—Poor growth in Germany should result in yields of short maturities falling faster than those of long maturities. —We expect yields of 2.20 percent by December 2025. |
Emerging market sovereign bonds
Poor yield outlook, increased risks
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Credit
Investment Grade
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High Yield
Euro/Dollar: Dollar should continue to be strong
Currencies
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Gold: Still moderate price potential after impressive rally
#5 Alternative assets
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LegendThe strategic view by December 2025 The indicators signal whether DWS expects the asset class in question to develop upwards, sideways or downwards. They indicate both the short-term and the long-term expected earnings potential for investors. Source: DWS Investment GmbH; CIO Office, as of 04 December 2024 DWS Market Outlook: The entire document can be found here. |
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Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, views and hypothetical models or analyses which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future results.